Modeling Work Group

Purpose of Modeling Work Group (MWG)
  • Develop a better understanding of the capabilities, inputs and assumptions, and outputs of the CRA MRN/NEEM (macroeconomic) model that will be used to evaluate the 8 Macroeconomic Futures and sensitivities and the GE MAPS (production cost) model that will be used to analyze the Roll-Up Plan and the final 3 Transmission Build out Scenarios.

    • Identify concerns or issues, seek answers, make recommendations and report to EIPC Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) regarding the MRN/NEEM and GE MAPS modeling to be performed.

  • Identify with CRA the matrix of specific required inputs for MRN/NEEM to be provided by SSC and advise the SSC and Scenario Planning Work Group (SPWG) on model inputs, outputs, processes and limitations to assist them in the development of the 8 Macroeconomic Futures.

    • Coordinate with the Roll-Up Work Group (RUWG) to identify any issues that could impact model inputs, assumptions, modeling, or results.

  • In coordination with and within the parameters set by the SPWG, make recommendations to the SSC on the values for the inputs and assumptions to be used for modeling the 8 Macroeconomic Futures.

    • Identify as appropriate data or analyses needs

    • Work with resources (e.g. DOE / National Laboratories)

    • Collaborate with CRA to ensure model consistency

  • Review outputs and results of MRN/NEEM and GE MAPS modeling and provide a report on the interpretations to SSC

Please note that the final version of Scenario Solutions (including additions from Tasks 7 & 8) has been posted on the Modeling Results page (8-22-12). 

Work Group Official Sector Representatives
(* indicates SSC Member)

Public Power-TDUs
Paul McCurley, NRECA
*Maryam Sharif, NYPA

Transmission Owners & Developers
Tyler Ruthven, National Grid
Allan Myers, ITC-Great Plains
Dennis Chastain, TVA

Generation Owners & Developers
*Steve Gaw, Wind Coalition
*Michael Goggin, AWEA
*Mark Volpe, Dynegy

Canada
Rob Sinclair, Ontario Power Authority

Other Suppliers
*Dennis Sobieski, Hess
Doug Hurley, Synapse Energy

States (EISPC)
*Jon McKinney, Public Service Commission of West Virginia
Doug Gotham, State Utility Forecasting Group
Hisham Choueiki, Public Utilities Commission of Ohio

NGOs
Wil Burns, Burns Law/ ECC
Samir Succar, NRDC
Matt Schuerger (Energy Systems Consulting Services LLC (Consultant)

End Users
*Ryan Kind, MO Office of the Public Counsel
Erin Hogan, NYSERDA
*Brenda Harris, Occidental Energy

Ex Officio
*Joe Bryson, U.S. EPA
*David Meyer, U.S. DOE DOE

Technical Advisor
Stan Hadley, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
MWG Call/Meeting Summaries

2012 - Phase II
Latest Sensitivities Options
Latest Draft Inputs Matrix
Final Observations and Considerations for Future Analyses, 11-28-12

MWG Summaries and Materials
Modeling Results can be downloaded from Phase II Resources

November 27       Summmary
Draft MWG Observations 11-27-12

November 20      
Summary 
Draft MWG Observations 11-20-12

November 13      Summary

October 15          Summary

October 11         

Summary of Sensitivities 10-11-12

October 10
Summary of Sensitivities 10-10-12

October 5
Summary of Sensitivities 10-05-12

October 3 
Summary of Sensitivities 10-03-12

October 1
          Summary

September 20, Detroit Meeting
Agenda                    Summary

September 17
                               Summary

September 14
Map of S3 Peak Load Spot Prices 
Map of S3 Average Spot Prices


September 10
                           
Summary

July 11              
Summary
July 2                  Summary    
June 27                  Summary    
June 25               Summary    
June 20                 Summary   
Summary of GE-MAPS Inputs 6-20 
June 18               Summary 
Summary of GE-MAPS Inputs 6-18   

June 13               Summary 
Summary of GE MAPS Inputs 6-13   
June 11               Summary    
June 8                 Summary   
Map of Maximum Hurdle Rates 
June 5                    Agenda
Draft GEMAPS Output Report Framework
Draft GE MAPS Inputs Draft
Draft Production Cost Model Runs
Summary

2011 - Phase I
Modeling April 20 2011 Summary
Work Group Resources

MWG Cost Memo to STF